PHOENIX — Democratic Rep. Ron Barber on Tuesday fell short of the votes he needed to overcome Republican Martha McSally's lead in Arizona's 2nd Congressional District race, barring a recount change or the late tally of a small number of outstanding provisional ballots that swings the race his way.

Barber was trailing McSally by 133 votes after Pima County election officials counted about 2,660 remaining ballots from the district Tuesday.

An estimated 200 conditional provisional ballots could still be counted if voters go to the county recorder's office and show needed identification by Wednesday. Not all of those are in the 2nd District.

McSally is a former Air Force pilot who lost to Barber in 2012 but redoubled her effort this year. National Republicans spent millions of dollars to back her, while national Democrats spent heavily to defend Barber.

If the count holds at less than about 200 votes between the candidates, it triggers an automatic recount. That would happen early next month.

A recount in a statewide race last occurred in 2010, when Proposition 212 failed by just 192 votes after nearly 1.6 million were cast. The results changed the total for each side by 33 votes but did not change the outcome

About 220,000 votes have been cast in the current 2nd District race.

Matt Roberts, a spokesman for Secretary of State Ken Bennett, said the swing in the 2010 race was tiny, and he would expect the same to happen if the Barber-McSally race goes to a recount.

"People should trust in the fact that elections officials will come up with the same number or thereabouts twice," Roberts said. "Our election equipment is something that works very well."

The race is one of only five congressional seats still undecided nationally. Three House seats in California and one in New York also remain too close to call.

Barber picked up 162 votes Monday and was trailing McSally by 179 votes on Tuesday morning. But he picked up just 46 votes after the final batch of verified provisional ballots were counted.

Barber spokeswoman Ashley Nash-Hahn in a statement said the race remained too close to call.

"This is the closest congressional election in Arizona history," she said. "The law calls for an automatic recount in a race this close, and that is where we are headed."

She also noted that nearly 800 provisional ballots were rejected by the county recorder.

McSally spokesman Patrick Ptak had no immediate comment on the latest numbers.

If McSally wins, it will be the only victory out of three Arizona congressional seats held by Democrats that Republicans targeted this year. Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick and Kyrsten Sinema easily won re-election.

Barber had an early lead on election night, but the race swung to McSally early the next day when Cochise County began reporting its results and Barber has never regained the lead.

McSally was 509 votes ahead on Friday, but Barber picked up 168 votes on Sunday and 162 votes Monday, cutting that lead to the current 179. Elections workers counted 5,434 ballots on those days.

McSally and Barber faced off in a similar battle during the 2012 election. Barber trailed for days, finally taking the lead on the Friday after Election Day. The race remained too close to call for another week.

Barber had won a special election to replace his former boss, Rep. Gabby Giffords, just months before the November 2012 election. He was with Giffords the previous year in Tucson when she was shot in the head and ultimately had to step down from her seat. Barber was hit in the thigh and cheek.

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