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NATO chief: Stalemate in Afghan south

U.S. troops can expect to keep deploying to Afghanistan for “at least” 10 more years, and perhaps decades, the top U.S. and NATO commander in Europe said Friday.

And while conditions in the eastern sector of Afghanistan are improving, Army Gen. John Craddock told defense reporters in Washington that a “security stalemate” exists in the restive south, where much of the nation’s illicit poppy crop is grown and where the Taliban insurgency is “very coherent.”

Craddock’s comments came the day after Gen. David Petraeus, chief of U.S. Central Command, said at a Washington, D.C., Institute for Peace seminar that for every accomplishment — such as agreement on a constitution, development of the Afghan national army and infrastructure improvements — there are setbacks, such as the regrouping of the Taliban and al-Qaida, “considerable corruption” and “numerous challenges” in developing government institutions.

“That will continue to be the case in 2009 and the years beyond,” Petraeus said, adding that the U.S. commitment in Afghanistan must be “sustained, comprehensive and coordinated.”

He also said that solving Afghanistan’s problems will require the cooperation of all the region’s countries — even Iran.

The number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan now totals about 32,000 but will double between late next summer and as much as 18 months down the road, officials have said. About 14,000 troops in the current U.S. force are serving in the 51,000-member International Security Assistance Force, for which Craddock is the force provider.

In an interview after the seminar, Petraeus declined to say how long it might take for all those troops to arrive, saying that decisions are still being made.

In a collection of essays in a new book published by the institute, “The Future of Afghanistan,” the authors mulled what sort of progress could be attained over a 10-year period.

Asked by reporters Jan. 9 if he agreed with that timeline, Craddock did not hesitate. “At least,” he said, adding it likely would be longer. “Maybe not at current force levels, but I think we’ll see a presence there for decades.”

Petraeus had declined to give a similarly specific estimate, saying only that achieving progress “will take time.”

The Afghan national army will need at least three more years before it can handle basic security on its own, Craddock said.

“We have to be able to implement our strategy,” Craddock said. “One, clear out the insurgency. Two, hold. Three, build. We are clearing, [but] we don’t have enough to hold to allow the build. And with the Afghan national army growing, but not there yet, we’re looking at another, I’d say three years. We can’t afford to wait three years. So we need to be able to put that security in. And it’s not country-wide; it’s in the south.”

Craddock said he is often asked if the alliance is losing in Afghanistan. He said the answer is no, but added: “We’re not winning fast enough.”

Craddock said the security issues in 60 percent of the country are caused by common criminals, not insurgents. He said that outside the Taliban-infested south, NATO is seeing “progress by varying degrees.” Reports that the capital city of Kabul is being cut off by insurgent advances are untrue, he said, adding that the number of security incidents in the city are down.

But Craddock echoed Petraeus’ concerns over corruption and said that without improvements, all the U.S. and NATO efforts could be for naught.

“Corruption is rampant and still getting worse,” Craddock said. “If it is not addressed, then we will have a much, much harder time, and a longer effort. It’s not coming together. Governance at the central, provincial and district level must be improved. The people do not believe that the government leaders, the officials, are working in their best interests. That has to — has to — get better.

“We can be perfect in security,” he said. “But if governance fails, we fail.”