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Keeping midcareer NCOs in blue a struggle

Chief Master Sgt. Mike Durst is used to dealing with numbers and details.

And the numbers he’s looking at are going down.

Durst is the career field manager for about 1,160 enlisted contracting specialists — airmen who handle the day-to-day purchases that keep bases running and planes in the air. As he discusses declining retention in the career field, Durst pulls out a sheet of figures to illustrate his concerns.

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There are plenty of young airmen and lots of noncommissioned officers at about the 20-year mark, he explains, but midlevel NCOs are in short supply. Many NCOs were lured away by opportunities to work as civilian contracting specialists for the military.

Somehow, the Air Force has to fill that shortage.

“It’s going to be a huge challenge to us,” Durst says.

He isn’t alone in his concerns.

Across enlisted career fields, re-enlistment rates are going down, especially among airmen the service is depending on to become its next generation of senior NCOs.

In 2004, 70 percent of airmen eligible for a third re-enlistment signed up to stay. By 2007, the re-enlistment rate had fallen to 53 percent.

Among airmen deciding to stay for a second term, the re-enlistment rate fell from 63 percent in 2004 to 55 percent in 2007.

The retention numbers for airmen signing up for a fourth or greater enlistment — airmen who are expected to stay in the service until they retire — remained stable at about 96 percent from 2004 through 2007.

Declining retention creates a downward spiral for career fields. While the demands on airmen remain steady or increase, there are fewer experienced NCOs to lead and mentor younger airmen. That, in turn, accelerates airmen into leadership positions for which they lack adequate training and experience and requires veteran NCOs to fill multiple roles. Those pressures, in turn, lead to more NCOs leaving, renewing the cycle.

The Air Force considers 11 Air Force Specialty Codes to be labeled “stressed” because of a combination of retention problems, positions left vacant and operational demands. Altogether, the career fields represent nearly 44,000 airmen, about 17 percent of the enlisted force.

The AFSCs include jobs that have historically been hard to fill because of tough fitness standards and a willingness to be on the front line or sometimes behind it — combat control, tactical air command and control, pararescue and explosive ordnance disposal.

But the other stressed career fields could come as a surprise — contracting, pavement and structural construction, vehicle operations, security forces, and computer and network technicians.

When re-enlistment rates among stressed career fields are examined, the declines are steep.

Among security forces, a career field in which airmen are often deployed for half the year, re-enlistment rates for third terms dropped from 59 percent in 2004 to 40 percent in 2007. During the same years, the re-enlistment rate for airmen agreeing to a second term dropped from 56 percent to 39 percent.

Among contracting specialists, third-term re-enlistments dove from 60 percent in 2004 to 19 percent in 2007.

But concerns aren’t limited to these stressed AFSCs.

Re-enlistment numbers for midcareer NCOs are also significantly down for career fields that aren’t officially considered stressed — such as boom operator, avionics technician, air battle manager, safety, aerial gunner, maintenance management analyst and surgical service.

The declining figures that first caught the Air Staff’s attention arrived in the spring of 2007. The numbers showed that for nine consecutive months, retention rates fell for airmen with one to 14 years of service. The greatest decrease was among airmen with six to 10 years in uniform. Their retention rate dropped from about 75 percent to 65 percent. Through early 2008, there was little change in retention rates.

The Air Force’s drawdown efforts didn’t have a significant impact on retention, except in 2005, at the start of the cuts. By 2006, retention rates for airmen with six or more years of service were close to the 2004 levels. Retention for airmen with less than six years fell to about 40 percent in 2005 but bounced back to nearly 50 percent in 2006.

Air Force officials haven’t estimated how much of today’s retention problems can be attributed to real or psychological effects of the drawdown. However, enlisted airmen say several years of declining bonuses, and having fewer airmen to do more work, sent the message that if you wanted to leave the Air Force, no one was going to try to change your mind.

Those declines spurred the Air Force personnel directorate at the Pentagon to raise a red flag on NCO losses and begin looking at boosting retention efforts, especially for airmen with six to 10 years of service.

To turn around the retention numbers, the Air Force is depending on an increase in the number of career fields eligible for special re-enlistment bonuses and — for AFSCs in the worst shape — better promotion opportunities.

For 2009, the Air Force is asking Congress for $108 million for re-enlistment bonuses, 151 percent more than 2008’s request.

While lawmakers have not yet approved the increase, officials don’t expect it to be turned down.

Decisions on which career fields and year-group zones are eligible for new bonuses likely won’t be announced until late August or September, officials said.

Among the potential new bonuses for airmen with six to 10 years time in service are payments to security forces members and civil engineering airmen in the structures and pavement specialties. Budget documents estimate about 7,500 airmen will take the bonus, compared to 2,860 this year.

The amount of a re-enlistment bonus is based on the airman’s pay, years of service and a multiplier reflecting the urgency of keeping the person in the AFSC. Typically, half the bonus is paid up front and the rest is delivered in annual installments until the re-enlistment agreement ends.

The expected 2009 SRB increase reverses a trend since 2004 toward cutting the number of eligible AFSCs and year groups. In 2004, the service reduced the number of qualifying AFSCs from 150 to 62. By 2006, the number of AFSCs eligible for bonuses had fallen to 37, and many of those were small career fields with a handful of members. Today, 43 AFSCs qualify.

Officials are also eyeing increased promotion opportunities for career fields that have fallen below 85 percent of their authorized positions. Once a career field is below 85 percent manning in a given rank, airmen testing for that rank are promoted more quickly to fill the gap. Typically, about 20 percent more airmen are promoted than if the career field did not have shortages.

Air Force leaders are hesitant to use this carrot because those extra promotions come at the expense of airmen in overstaffed career fields — those at 115 percent manning or higher. The Air Force is still debating which career fields will see higher promotion rates for the coming round of staff sergeant, technical sergeant and master sergeant promotions. When 2008’s senior master sergeants were named in March, 40 AFSCs were approved for higher promotion rates.

Another way to plug the NCO gap is persuading airmen to cross-train into undermanned AFSCs or encouraging airmen who left the service to come back to their former positions.

Security forces is the largest of the stressed career fields, with about 24,500 enlisted members.

Because force and base protection missions require a lot of manpower, the career field has traditionally had a greater percentage of junior enlisted airmen than most AFSCs. Often, security forces NCOs were encouraged to cross-train into other career fields. However, seven years of deployments and a lack of bonuses for airmen with more than six years of service are taking a toll.

Staff Sgt. Gina Scott is assigned to the 316th Security Forces Squadron at Andrews Air Force Base, Md., as the physical security NCO. When Scott re-enlisted the first time in 2003, she did it in order to take an assignment in Europe.

With her next enlistment decision due in 2010 after about 10 years in the Air Force, Scott said she is leaning toward leaving the service and looking for a job in civilian law enforcement. As the mother of a 2-year-old son, Scott doesn’t see herself continuing to deploy for six months at a time.

“When I came back, my son didn’t know me,” Scott said about her return from a six-month stay in Iraq at Camp Bucca.

A bonus wouldn’t be enough to persuade her to stay in, but a promise of fewer or shorter deployments might do the trick, she told Air Force Times.

Staff Sgt. Jacob Fenolia, the NCO in charge of off-station training for the 820th Security Forces Group at Moody Air Force Base, Ga., is also due to make a re-enlistment decision in 2010 after almost eight years in uniform. Already more than halfway toward earning a bachelor’s degree in business management, Fenolia is leaning toward leaving the service.

“I can see myself doing a lot more in the outside world,” he said.

As a single guy, deployments weren’t a concern. “I came in after Sept. 11, so I knew I would be deploying,” Fenolia said.

Now, as a married man waiting to start a family, the prospect of continued six-month deployments is part of the re-enlistment equation.

“I would like to have a more stable life before we have kids,” hesaid.

A re-enlistment bonus would factor into a decision to stay, Fenolia said. However, he said the Air Force could offer other benefits such as sending him to an advanced combat school or giving him a preferred base. A 2004 graduate of the prestigious Army Ranger course, Fenolia pointed out he could get more money enlisting with the Army than staying with the Air Force.

To shore up the gap in contracting officers, there is little choice but to ask airmen to cross-train into that career field, Chief Master Sgt. Durst said. Even if bonuses are offered for 2009, the career field needs additional NCOs. While cross-trained contracting specialists would lack job experience, they would bring experience as NCOs. It takes about six years to “fully season” a contracting specialist, Durst said.

Three of the stressed career fields are enlisted civil engineer positions — EOD, structures and pavement. While EOD has been a focus of past retention efforts, less consideration was given to keeping airmen who build runways, roads and buildings. In fact, paving and structures career fields lost personnel as part of the recent drawdowns.

Chief Master Sgt. Patrick Abbott, a career enlisted civil engineer, now serves as the chief of enlisted matters at the Office of the Air Force Civil Engineer.

He said he is optimistic that retention bonuses coupled with an effort to recruit former civil engineers will preserve the NCO ranks.

“Obviously, it is good not to be forced out and to get a bonus,” Abbott said.

But civil engineer NCOs said money alone won’t address the career field’s day-to-day concerns.

Master Sgt. Mike Kotlarsic, a structures airman for the past 21 years, assigned to the 316th Civil Engineer Squadron at Andrews Air Force Base, Md., said a common frustration among structures airmen is the requirement to be specialists in a wide range of trades — including carpentry, welding and locksmith.

“They’ve got us doing too much now,” said Kotlarsic, who came into the Air Force as a carpenter.

Tech. Sgt. Eric Walls, a structures airman for 14 years, also with the 316th, said that airmen asking for the career field enjoy construction.

When deployed or overseas, putting up buildings and other large projects is a main concern, but at stateside bases, they are often given small projects such as installing doors. Private contractors put up buildings.

“In the states, I hear a lot more frustration,” Walls said.

The strain of deployments, six months out of every 18 months, is also a factor.

Home base units are left short-staffed by deployments, Walls said. That leads base commanders to conclude the unit doesn’t have the manpower for a large project, which leads to smaller projects that frustrate airmen, which leads to them leaving and perhaps going to work for the construction firm working on the base.

With 14 years in, Walls is making the Air Force a career. But even with a bonus and the downturn in the construction industry, younger airmen will be tempted to leave and take their chances as a civilian, he said.

Among the career fields with retention issues but not on the stressed list is aerial gunner. These are the airmen who sit behind the machine guns mounted on helicopters or who operate the cannons onboard AC-130 gunships.

Senior Master Sgt. Greg Smith is a gunner and operations superintendent for the 4th Special Operations Squadron at Hurlburt Field, Fla. Since Sept. 11, Smith said, he has deployed nine times.

While every gunner in the AC-130U Spooky squadron volunteered to be an aircrew member, they aren’t immune from the lures of civilian life. Smith sees a growing number of his experienced NCOs leaving the Air Force for jobs as civilian contractors, some training airmen to be gunners.

While gunners re-enlisting with up to 10 years in service qualify for bonuses, there is nothing offered after a decade of service.

That can be frustrating, Smith said, because veteran gunners see other enlisted aircrew members on the same plane — such as flight engineers — qualifying for retention bonuses. The Defense Department also mandates substantial bonuses for senior enlisted combat controllers and pararescuemen to keep their benefits on par with the pay of Navy and Army special operators.

When a crew gathers for pre-flight briefings, concerns about pay and benefits get set aside, and none of the crew members would trade places for another assignment.

“Doing the mission is the most important thing we can do,” Smith said.