Air Force News, news from Iraq - Air Force Times

Pause withdrawal after summer, Petraeus says

In a clear sign that the burden of figuring a way out of Iraq falls on the next U.S. president, the nation’s leading Iraq strategists said Tuesday they cannot see far enough into the horizon to know when and how a withdrawal is possible.

“Almost everything about Iraq is hard,” said U.S. ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker, “but hard does not mean hopeless.”

“I cannot guarantee success in Iraq, but I think we are closer,” Crocker said as he and Army Gen. David. Petraeus, commander of U.S. and multi-national forces in Iraq, began two days of testimony before Congress. They will testify again on Wednesday.

Petraeus, in a somewhat unexpected announcement, said he recommends continuing to draw down the temporary surge of U.S. combat forces in Iraq through the summer, but then wants a 45-day pause to determine the next step. That leaves key decisions on Iraq to be made just about the same time as the fall elections.

Petraeus was unwilling to predict how many people might be in Iraq by the end of the year, which coincides with the final days of the Bush administration.

There had been discussion of the possibility of freezing current troop levels, a move that would delay Army plans to return to 12-month deployments to Iraq rather than the 15-month deployments imposed during the troop surge.

“The strain on the force is something I took very much into account in making my recommendation,” Petraeus said.

Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., the Senate Armed Services Committee chairman, called the new plan an “open-ended commitment.” It is, he said, “a plan that has no end to it.”

“An announcement of an open-ended pause in troop reductions starting in July would simply send the wrong signal to the Iraqi leaders,” Levin said.

However, small progress is enough for many. “The question is, do we proceed with this proven strategy for success,” said Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss. “I think history would view this Congress as very foolish if we leave now and refuse to embrace the success that we’ve seen.”

However, Sen. Richard Lugar of Indiana, ranking Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said it does appear there is not much more the U.S. military can do. “Security improvement derived purely from American military operations have reached or almost reached a plateau,” he said. While holding open the possibility there would be some marginal security gains from further U.S. operations, Lugar said the central Iraq government seems unable or unwilling to lead. “The Iraqi government is afflicted by corruption and shows signs of sectarian bias,” Lugar said.

Ideally, the Iraqi people would grow weary of violence and embrace a political solution and cease fire, he said, but heavily armed sectarian and tribal groups remain active and are trying to expand and solidify their position. “Iraq will be an unstable country for the foreseeable future, and if some type of political settlement can be reached it will be inherently fragile.”

Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid of Nevada said it is hard to see much progress. “It is clear to anyone that violence has surged. Eleven young Americans have been killed in combat since Sunday. Dozens and dozens more have been gravely wounded. Attacks on the Green Zone have intensified. That is supposed to be the safest part of Iraq.

“Has the surge brought us closer to the day when our troops come home? Clearly, the answer is no,” Reid said.

Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, an armed services committee member, said “success always seems to be just around the corner” for Iraqi forces but “when put to the test they seem to perform very unevenly.”

“Ultimately, the fate of Iraq is up to the Iraqi people,” she said. “As long as we continue to take the lead, the Iraqis are never going to step up to the plate and fight for their country.”

DISCUSS: Will Petraeus’ plan work?