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Fewer pilots heading to training, cockpits

The Air Force is throttling back how many officers go into the pilot training pipeline and, later, into fighter cockpits.

In 2008, the number of students who start flight training will decline to about 925 airmen, according to Col. Mike McKinney, who oversees operational training concerns for the Air Staff. That’s a 12 percent cut from past years, when about 1,100 pilots earned their wings annually.

In 2009, the Air Force anticipates accepting about 1,025 pilots and then leveling out at that number for a few more years, McKinney added.

Driving the cuts is the need to match the arrival of new pilots with a declining number of aircraft to which pilots can be assigned.

If the Air Force did not slow down pilot production, the service’s fighter squadrons would be overwhelmed by first-assignment pilots who could not get adequate training because there wouldn’t be enough jets or instructors.

The ideal mix of new and experienced pilots in a fighter squadron is 55 percent experienced and 45 percent inexperienced. The Air Force defines an “experienced” fighter pilot as an aviator with at least 500 hours of fighter flight time, a goal that takes about three years to reach.

“You always need an experienced flight lead to train an inexperienced young guy or gal,” said McKinney, whose career includes fighter and MQ-1 Predator tours.

Pilots assigned to fly transports and tankers have not faced similar training dilemmas, McKinney said. Mobility squadrons are able to train new arrivals because airmen can get added flight hours on real-world missions and multiple pilots can fly on the same aircraft.

One effect of cutting training slots is even tougher competition to get into pilot school. While there will be fewer pilot slots, there will be no decrease in the number of officers commissioned out of ROTC, the Air Force Academy and Officer Training School, Air Force projections show. The service expects to pin bars on about 4,420 lieutenants in 2008 and again in 2009. In 2008, only about 21 percent of those new officers will be accepted into pilot training.

The smaller pilot classes are part of an effort to trim the number of fighter and bomber pilots, McKinney said.

In June, the Air Force began reassigning 120 fighter and bomber pilots on their first assignment to special operations and unmanned aerial vehicles squadrons, which are expanding. Another 60 fighter and bomber pilots in mid-career positions are becoming staff members at air operations centers. The reassignments are spread across 2007 and 2008.

McKinney said switching pilot assignments is a one-time measure. Because fewer new pilots will be moving into fighter and bomber units in coming years, the Air Force will not need to reassign pilots out of those squadrons for the foreseeable future. With the service on track to retire 294 fighter jets by 2013 — without one-for-one replacements of F-22A Raptors or F-35 Lightning IIs in the works — the Air Force had little choice but to shrink its pilot numbers.

A study of fighter pilot training issues by Rand Corp.’s Project Air Force painted a bleak picture if the Air Force failed to cut back on the number of new pilots sent to fighters and bombers.

The Rand study estimated that within five years F-15 Eagle and F-16 Fighting Falcon squadrons would have 40 percent more pilots than they could train adequately. So many pilots would be trying to fly so few aircraft that pilots would get only four sorties a month, about one-third of what the Air Force wants a new pilot to fly.

Rand’s conclusions led an Air Force working group to make three recommendations on pilot training:

* Reduce the number of new fighter pilots sent to active-duty squadrons annually.

* Send 50 to 75 initial flight training graduates to UAV squadrons as their first assignment.

* Assign 50 to 75 pilots a year to fly with Guard or Reserve fighter squadrons for their initial assignment and then place them in active-duty units.

The Air Force implemented the first recommendation, but has not put the remaining two into action.

McKinney said the service intends to assign more new active-duty fighter pilots to Guard and Reserve squadrons, but the money to do that is not in the budget until 2010. The active-duty pilots would be in addition to the Guard or Reserve squadron’s pilots; they would not take positions away from the Guard and Reserve.

Sending new pilots straight into UAVs as a first assignment is an idea Air Force leadership continues to reject, McKinney said.

The policy is still that UAV pilots need a prior operational assignment. Once a UAV pilot finishes a tour of about three years, the pilot can request to go back to his previous aircraft or stay with remote-controlled aircraft. About 25 percent of the UAV pilots decide to stay, McKinney said.

In the long term, graduating fewer pilots now means there will be fewer pilots to fill staff positions in 10 or 12 years. A pilot typically gets a headquarters staff position on his third or fourth assignment.

To reduce the requirements for staff positions, the Air Force’s major commands have been asked to justify the need for rated officers to fill staff positions, McKinney said. “We want rated officers doing a rated officer’s job,” he said.